Vietnam and Comparisons

GDP, Stock Markets, and Income

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Economic_Outlook

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

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This is a weekend without any test and project, so I spend some enjoyable-lazy time to play around with numbers and make a graph. I always love graphing because it’s simply worth more than thousand words.

Most of stock markets outperformed GDP or nation’s incomes. So, in my opinion, this finance crisis will lead to more troubles and longer recovery of economies.

Yet, it’s not in a case of Vietnam.

China’s inflation

China

Source: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11920640

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Economics focus

Inflated claims

Why China is not to blame for the surge in global inflation

MANY people in America and Europe think that the recent surge in inflation, like almost everything else these days, is “made in China”. For a number of years, cheap Chinese goods helped to reduce prices in rich economies, but more recently wages and prices have surged in China. On top of this, the hungry dragon’s insatiable appetite for food, energy and other raw materials has given cartoonists an emotive image for the surge in global commodity prices. As a result, it is claimed, China is no longer exporting deflation to the rich world, but inflation.

Vietnam Balance of Payment – Money’s inflow

List of countries by public debt

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_debt

Public debt as a percent of GDP, as listed on CIA factbook, accessed March 2007.

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Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_payments

Balance of Payments for a country is the sum of the current account (the net change in current assets from trade in goods and services (balance of trade), net factor income (such as dividends and interest payments from abroad), and net unilateral transfers from abroad (such as foreign aid, grants, gifts, etc), the capital account (country’s inflows and outflows of payments and transfer of ownership of fixed assets)

where:

• X = exports
• M = imports
• K_i = capital inflows (FDI)
• K_o = capital outflows

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TOTAL FDI CAPITAL IN VIETNAM 1998 – 2006

Source: http://www.vietpartners.com/Statistic-FDI.htm

Registered FDI in 2007 over US$20.3 billion but only US$4 billion disbursed

Source: http://www.gda.com.vn/?page=news&code=news&id=1304

Vietnam must first develop its infrastructure facilities, land, human resources, etc. to welcome new waves of FDI into the country…

The advantage of our workforce is we have numbers but only small minorities are trained and capable…

Emerging economies

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10136509&fsrc=RSS

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Dizzy in Boomtown

Nov 15th 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist

THE world is experiencing one of the biggest revolutions in history, as economic power shifts from the developed world to China and other emerging giants. Thanks to market reforms, emerging economies are growing much faster than developed ones.

Emerging economies account for 30% of world GDP at market exchange rates (and over half using purchasing-power parity to take account of price differences). At market exchange rates they already account for half of global GDP growth. And by a wide range of measures, their weight is looming larger. Their exports are 45% of the world total; they consume over half of the world’s energy and have accounted for four-fifths of the growth in oil demand in the past five years (explaining why oil prices are so high); and they are sitting on 75% of global foreign-exchange reserves.

Will BRIC conquer the world ?

http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php?/site/article/4390/

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Stuart Simpson

Thursday 21 February 2008

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Essay: We should celebrate the spread of wealth and modernity in the developing world, while recognising that a great shift in global power is not imminent.

The continued rise of the emerging economies, particularly India and China, is never far from the headlines. What impact these economies will have on the twenty-first century is the subject of much debate, with the possibility of a shift in global political power a recurring theme. It is often assumed that the emerging economies are following the same path to development that the established economic powers did – but this assumption is worth questioning.

Globalizing or Decoupling – a myth?

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10808782&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

The decoupling debate

Could recession spread from America?

“DECOUPLING” is the source of a great deal of controversy. Economists argue about whether or not emerging economies will follow America into recession. The most pessimistic claim that as economies have become more intertwined through trade and finance, this should make business cycles more synchronised, not less. The slide in emerging stockmarkets on Wall Street’s coat-tails appears to endorse their view. Yet recent data suggest decoupling is no myth. Indeed, it may yet save the world economy.

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http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/05/07/a-central-economic-question-of-our-times/

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10567609&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

Decoupling 1: Emerging Asia

An independent streak

Jan 24th 2008 | HONG KONG

Some investors fear that America’s weakening economy will drag down Asia.

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10567586&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

Decoupling 2: Japan

Unable to fend for itself

Jan 24th 2008 | TOKYO

Japan’s export-led economy still relies heavily on America

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Can Emerging Economies Decouple?

Presentation by Mr. Ayhan Kose

Research Department – IMF

GDP (PPP) of Asia

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/country/maps/asia/gdp_ppp.htm

IEA – International Energy Agency

GDP (PPP): Gross Domestic Product calculated using Purchasing Power Parities.

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Gross Domestic Product [2007]	Gross Domestic Product [2050]
Rank   Country   GDP (millions of USD)   1 United States 13,843,825 2 Japan 4,383,762 3 Germany 3,322,147 4 China 3,250,827 5 United Kingdom 2,772,570 6 France 2,560,255 7 Italy 2,104,666 8 Spain 1,438,959 9 Canada 1,432,140 10 Brazil 1,313,590 11 Russia 1,289,582 12 India 1,098,945 13 South Korea 957,053 14 Australia 908,826 15 Mexico 893,365	Rank   Country   GDP (millions of USD)   1 China 78,000,000 2 United States 38,500,000 3 India 37,600,000 4 Brazil 11,300,000 5 Russia 9,340,000 6 Mexico 8,580,000 7 Indonesia 7,010,000 8 Japan 6,670,000 9 United Kingdom 5,130,000 10 Germany 5,020,000 11 Nigeria 4,640,000 12 France 4,590,000 13 South Korea 4,080,000 14 Turkey 3,940,000 15 Vietnam 3,600,000

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC

IBM and contribution of BRIC

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHTML1?SessionID=n4qdWLAZbbqzsfh&ID=5189961

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UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15 (d)

OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934

Date of Report:  May 17, 2007

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION

FDI – where the money

http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=7933596&story_id=11565600

Foreign direct investment

Follow the money

China gets most foreign direct investment among developing countries, but its share is falling

DEVELOPING countries are attracting more foreign investment than ever before. Since 2000, FDI inflows have rocketed from $165.5 billion to an estimated $470.8 billion in 2007 says the World Bank. China draws the most, attracting $84 billion of investment last year. But this represented 18% of the total compared with 30% five years before. By contrast, Brazil and Turkey have seen their share increase. Investment has poured into Russia, mainly because of its energy boom, even despite increasing regulatory hurdles to foreign investors. Mexico is the fourth-biggest destination country, receiving $23.2 billion in FDI—the same as it gets in remittances.

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http://www.economist.com/markets/rankings/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9723875

Foreign direct investment inflows

Rivulets and riptides

The United States and the developed European Union are the main recipients of foreign direct investment

Emerging markets’ spendings to growth

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11488749

Economics focus

Building BRICs of growth

Jun 5th 2008

Record spending on infrastructure will help to sustain rapid growth in emerging economies

THE biggest investment boom in history is under way. Over half of the world’s infrastructure investment is now taking place in emerging economies, where sales of excavators have risen more than fivefold since 2000. In total, emerging economies are likely to spend an estimated $1.2 trillion on roads, railways, electricity, telecommunications and other projects this year, equivalent to 6% of their combined GDPs—twice the average infrastructure-investment ratio in developed economies. Largely as a result, total fixed investment in emerging economies could increase by a staggering 16% in real terms this year, according to HSBC, whereas in rich economies it is forecast to be flat. Such investment will help support economic growth this year as America’s economy stalls—and for many years to come…