Globalizing or Decoupling – a myth?

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10808782&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

The decoupling debate

Could recession spread from America?

“DECOUPLING” is the source of a great deal of controversy. Economists argue about whether or not emerging economies will follow America into recession. The most pessimistic claim that as economies have become more intertwined through trade and finance, this should make business cycles more synchronised, not less. The slide in emerging stockmarkets on Wall Street’s coat-tails appears to endorse their view. Yet recent data suggest decoupling is no myth. Indeed, it may yet save the world economy.

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http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2008/05/07/a-central-economic-question-of-our-times/

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10567609&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

Decoupling 1: Emerging Asia

An independent streak

Jan 24th 2008 | HONG KONG

Some investors fear that America’s weakening economy will drag down Asia.

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http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10567586&CFID=10561065&CFTOKEN=51345653

Decoupling 2: Japan

Unable to fend for itself

Jan 24th 2008 | TOKYO

Japan’s export-led economy still relies heavily on America

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Can Emerging Economies Decouple?

Presentation by Mr. Ayhan Kose

Research Department – IMF

Globalization – will it save or destroy the world?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/03/business_trade_and_poor_countries/html/1.stm

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BBC News Online looks at how poor countries have fared as trade has increased.

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World trade has been the engine of world economic growth in the last 50 years. But many poor countries have been left behind as rich countries have subsidised agriculture and blocked access to their markets.

The growth in world trade has been unevenly spread. Some developing countries – often in Asia – have increased growth by producing more manufactured goods. But others – often in Africa – have fallen further behind.

Can the U.S. Bring Jobs Back from China?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_26/b4090038429655.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

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by Pete Engardio

June 19, 2008, 5:00PM EST

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Pricey oil is dulling the mainland’s edge in manufacturing. But American industry may not be ready to seize the opportunity

This would seem to be a good time for an American manufacturing renaissance. The economics of global trade are starting to tilt back in favor of the U.S. to a degree unseen in a generation. Since 2002 the dollar has plunged by 30% against major world currencies and is falling against the yuan. Wages in China are rising 10% to 15% a year. And spiking oil prices are driving up shipping rates. The cost of sending a 40-foot container from Shanghai to San Diego has soared by 150%, to $5,500, since 2000. If oil hits $200 a barrel, that could reach $10,000, projects Toronto financial-services firm CIBC World Markets.