VN
Background
Over the course of two decades Vietnam has emerged as an important regional economy in Southeast Asia. The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by an average 7.3 percent over the last ten years.
Vietnam economy visualizing 2009
Source: http://www.ciaonet.org/atlas/VN/Economy/Economic_structure/20071119_2642.html
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Vietnam’s New Challenges Amid Signs of Overheating
By Shogo Ishii
Assistant Director, IMF Asia and Pacific Department
March 7, 2008
Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR03708A.htm
An immediate policy challenge for Vietnam is to reduce domestic and external imbalances by:
+ Reining in rapid credit growth
+ Adopting greater exchange rate flexibility.
+ Restraining public sector expenditures.
+ Need for banking reform
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Challenges:
1. Currency depreciation
2. Rising inflation
3. Lowering GDP growth
4. Widening trade deficit
5. Finance crisis
6. Economic bubble
July 2008 statistics ( comparing to Jan 2008 )
- Interest rate: 20%/year ( + 40% )
- Inflation rate: 26% ( + 20%)
- Exchange rate: 16,844 VND/USD ( + 5%)
Bloomberg forward: 22,575 VND/USD ( + 28%)
- GDP 2008: 5% ( – 3% from initial set 8%)
Cutting goverment spending, tightening public investment
- Trade deficit : $US 15 billion ( +
Import: $US 45 billion ( + 60%)
Export: $US 30 billion ( + 32%)
- Foreign currency reserve: $US 20.7 billion
Balance of payment surplus: $US 2.5 billion (estimated)
* Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam – Vietstudies.info
* Concern rises in Vietnam over fiscal deficit – Forbes.com
* Deficit worries test Vietnam resilience – FT.com
* Once Enemies, Vietnam Now Fights for China Funds – WSJ.com
* The Miracles of Realism – NYTimes.com
* Van Eck Launches First Vietnam ETF
* Vietnam Manages to Buck Global Slump – WSJ.com
* Vietnam state bank fails to sell 2 trln dong bonds – Reuters.com
* Vietnam Takes Measures to Spur Bank Lending – WSJ.com
* Vietnam’s rebounding economy: V not yet for victory – Economist.com
* Vietnam’s Growing Pains – FEER.com
* World Bank Vietnam Development Report 2009: Capital Matters – WB.org
* World Bank Vietnam’s Report 6/2008 – WB.org
* World Bank Vietnam’s Report 6/2009 – Tapchithoidai.org
* World Bank warns Vietnam on deficit – FT.com
Tino said
Hello,
I am a Vietnamese-American MBA student at the University of Virginia. I am currently doing research on the impact of Viet Kieu investments/remittances/entrepreneurs on the Vietnamese economy. It seems that you have been following the Vietnamese economy closely. If you don’t mind, may I contact you sometime to get your insights? Thank you for any help you can provide.
Best,
Tino
Robin Thieu said
Hi Tino, it’s my happy if I could give you any help. I can be reach through here or email at: robinthieu@gmail.com.
Good luck with your research.
Robin
Tino said
I can be reached at: dinht10@darden.virginia.edu