Blog LeGianT

"If I have seen further it is only by standing on the shoulders of giants." – Sir Isaac Newton

  • LeGianT

  • Hồ Chí Minh

  • Meta

  • Recent Posts

  • Recent Comments

    Gordon Finchman on Credit Crisis Indicators…
    brunette teenage gir… on Vietnam Balance of Payment…
    Futures Galleria on Visualizing Vietnam Economy…
    hong on Smartphone Industry and Apple…
    current account on Vietnam current account…
  • Blog Stats

    • 22,022 hits
  • Quotes

    "Talent is God-given: be humble. Fame is man-given: be grateful. Conceit is self-given: be careful." John Wooden

    ---
    "If you can't predict the future, then you need a system that can handle breakdown" John M. Keynes
    ---
    "The birth of economics as a discipline is usually credited by Adam Smith, who published "The Wealth of Nations" in 1776. Over the next 160 years an extensive body of economic theory was developed, whose central message was: Trust the Market." _ Paul Krugman
    ---
    "One fear is that foreign investors will stop buying U.S. debt, just as Washington needs to borrow more. Such a turn could lead to a dollar collapse, causing spikes in long-term rates and inflation. The less the U.S. need to borrow from abroad, the less downward pressure on the dollar - and the greater the balance in the global economy." _ James C. Cooper
    ---
    “Nếu ai cũng sợ chụp mũ, nếu chỉ có một trung tâm độc quyền phát ra chân lý, nếu cấp dưới chưa có thói quen tranh luận với cấp trên, không dám suy nghĩ bằng cái đầu của mình vì sợ mất đầu, thì tình trạng lạc hậu về nhận thức lý luận ở nước ta sẽ còn kéo dài”_ GS. TS. Dương Phú Hiệp
    ---
    “Vì dân, cứ nghĩ làm thế nào để vì dân thì sẽ biết cách làm việc, biết cách sống"

    "Đất đai rừng biển của ta
    Tự cường dân chủ ắt là tiến mau
    Quyết trừ tham nhũng làm đầu
    Nghiêm trị những kẻ cường hào nhiễu dân
    Chỉnh Đảng trong sạch rất cần
    Nghe nhiều bớt cấm thì dân đồng lòng
    Tăng kinh tế, tăng quốc phòng
    Dân mà tâm phục thì không sợ gì…"_ tướng Nguyễn Trọng Vĩnh
    ---
    “Học thuyết của Khổng Tử có ưu điểm là sự tu dưỡng đạo đức cá nhân. Tôn giáo Giê-su có ưu điểm là lòng nhân ái cao cả. Chủ nghĩa Marx có ưu điểm là phương pháp làm việc biện chứng. Chủ nghĩa Tôn Dật Tiên có ưu điểm là chính sách thích hợp với điều kiện nước ta… Khổng Tử, Giê-su, Marx, Tôn Dật Tiên, chẳng đã có những điểm chung đó sao? Họ đều muốn mưu cầu hạnh phúc cho loài người, mưu phúc lợi cho xã hội. Nếu hôm nay họ còn sống trên đời này, nếu họ họp lại một chỗ, tôi tin rằng họ nhất định chung sống với nhau rất hoàn mỹ như những người bạn thiết. Tôi cố gắng làm người học trò nhỏ của các vị ấy”_ Hồ Chí Minh

VIET NAM

Background

The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012
(http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Report_2011-12.pdf)
Vietnam’s competitiveness assessment declines in this edition, dropping six places to 65th. The country loses ground in 10 of the 12 pillars of the GCI and only a significant improvement in the macroeconomic environment (65th, up 20 places) limits its fall in the rankings. Despite this considerable improvement, some macroeconomic challenges remain. The 2010 budget deficit was still too large, at 6 percent of GDP, and inflation moved back to near double-digit levels after having briefly receded the year before. Going forward, Vietnam will have to build on its strengths while addressing the economy’s numerous challenges. Among its competitive strengths are its fairly efficient labor market (46th) and its innovation potential (66th) given its stage of development, including its relatively large market size (33rd), which benefits from a particularly large export market.
However, the challenges going forward are numerous and significant. Infrastructure, strained by rapid economic growth, remains a major challenge for the country despite some improvement in recent years, with particular concerns about the quality of roads (123rd) and ports (111th). And although education appears to be satisfactory in terms of quality, enrollment rates at all levels remain low (64th, 103rd, and 110th for primary, secondary, and tertiary enrollments, respectively). In order to further improve its competitiveness, Vietnam must also continue to strengthen its institutional environment. Regulation is perceived as burdensome (113rd), with the number of procedures (9, 94th) and time (44 days, 119th) required to start a business making this a cumbersome process. In addition, there are concerns regarding the level of intellectual property protection (127th) and, to a lesser extent, the respect of property rights (98th). Finally, corruption is considered frequent and pervasive (104th).

—————————————————-

Over the course of two decades Vietnam has emerged as an important regional economy in Southeast Asia. The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by an average 7.3 percent over the last ten years.

Visualizing Vietnam Economy 2009

Vietnam economy visualizing 2009

Source: http://www.ciaonet.org/atlas/VN/Economy/Economic_structure/20071119_2642.html

Vietnam’s New Challenges Amid Signs of Overheating

By Shogo Ishii
Assistant Director, IMF Asia and Pacific Department

March 7, 2008

vietnam GDPvietnam trade deficit

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR03708A.htm


An immediate policy challenge for Vietnam is to reduce domestic and external imbalances by:

+ Reining in rapid credit growth

+ Adopting greater exchange rate flexibility.

+ Restraining public sector expenditures.

+ Need for banking reform

Challenges:

1. Currency depreciation

2. Rising inflation

3. Lowering GDP growth

4. Widening trade deficit

5. Finance crisis

6. Economic bubble

July 2008 statistics ( comparing to Jan 2008 )

– Interest rate: 20%/year ( + 40% )

– Inflation rate: 26% ( + 20%)

– Exchange rate: 16,844 VND/USD ( + 5%)

Bloomberg forward: 22,575 VND/USD ( + 28%)

– GDP 2008: 5% ( – 3% from initial set 8%)

Cutting goverment spending, tightening public investment

– Trade deficit : $US 15 billion ( +

Import: $US 45 billion ( + 60%)

Export: $US 30 billion ( + 32%)

– Foreign currency reserve: $US 20.7 billion

Balance of payment surplus: $US 2.5 billion (estimated)

Vietnam Economics

* Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam – Vietstudies.info
* Concern rises in Vietnam over fiscal deficit – Forbes.com
* Deficit worries test Vietnam resilience – FT.com
* Once Enemies, Vietnam Now Fights for China Funds – WSJ.com
* The Miracles of Realism – NYTimes.com
* Van Eck Launches First Vietnam ETF
* Vietnam Manages to Buck Global Slump – WSJ.com
* Vietnam state bank fails to sell 2 trln dong bonds – Reuters.com
* Vietnam Takes Measures to Spur Bank Lending – WSJ.com
* Vietnam’s rebounding economy: V not yet for victory – Economist.com
* Vietnam’s Growing Pains – FEER.com
* World Bank Vietnam Development Report 2009: Capital Matters – WB.org
* World Bank Vietnam’s Report 6/2008 – WB.org
* World Bank Vietnam’s Report 6/2009 – Tapchithoidai.org
* World Bank warns Vietnam on deficit – FT.com

3 Responses to “VIET NAM”

  1. Tino said

    Hello,
    I am a Vietnamese-American MBA student at the University of Virginia. I am currently doing research on the impact of Viet Kieu investments/remittances/entrepreneurs on the Vietnamese economy. It seems that you have been following the Vietnamese economy closely. If you don’t mind, may I contact you sometime to get your insights? Thank you for any help you can provide.

    Best,
    Tino

  2. Tino said

    I can be reached at: dinht10@darden.virginia.edu

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: